Britain wants to have its cake and eat it.
Britain will have its cake and it will eat it. In effect, this was the promise of the the hardcore cabal of Vote Leave politicians prior to the referendum.
The ‘Brexiteers’ promised a nationalist, protectionist utopia whereby we could continue unabated merrily trading tariff free with the EU. What they promised was in effect a bespoke single market between Britain and the EU.
All of this would be delivered gift wrapped from Brussels in a metaphorical union jack to the British public, allowing Britain to close its borders to the unwanted riff-raff of refugees and immigrants. Those who had the audacity and desire to escape their war torn lands, or come into Britain and work for the minimum wage in a unsavoury job unwanted by the British workforce.
No these are not the thoughts of a UKIP fantasist, but the mainstream ideas espoused by the leading Brexit politicians, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. The former both acted and looked like a school head boy with an ego inflated by the indestructible belief in his ideological stance, the latter a jocular but sinister character many believed driven less by ideology and more by a thirst for the keys to number 10. Both it would transpire, in the unraveling of post-brexit events were machiavellian characters in their own right.
The evolution of the EU since the 1980s and especially since the Maastricht treaty of 1992 has sought to integrate the continent of Europe under the principles of freedom of movement for; goods, services, capital and workers, in essence the bedrock of a single market.
But should the EU kowtow to such lofty and seemingly arrogant proposals, and more importantly will they allow Britain to cherry pick their way out of the EU?
Politicians across Europe have been unanimous in their call for an amicable, swift and orderly transition of Britain out of the EU. From Merkel to Hollande they have reiterated the mantra that whilst they are saddened by the result, the need to respect the will of the people is paramount.
The EU’s leading politicians have reiterated the indivisibility of the four freedoms: Freedom of goods, services, capital and workers. The notion that if you want one you must accept all is sacrosanct to the European project, and like all projects there are costs and benefits. To enjoy the benefits you must sometimes bear the costs, which in Britain’s case means accepting free movement of people for access to goods and services.
To allow Britain to opt out of free movement of people but still retain access to the single market would make a mockery of the existence of the EU, and lead to a domino effect across Europe of likeminded sceptics wanting the same outcome, it could signal the death knell of the EU as we know it.
The EU is currently dealing with crisis on multiple fronts; the after effects of the 2007-8 crash, the refugee situation, Brexit, rising nationalism and euro-scepticism across Europe. But count it out at your peril, the EU for all its failings has produced a successful single market, and cross-border cooperation in diverse fields has been enabled by the free movement of workers and services. The EU is a project willing to do what it takes to survive, any threat to its continued existence such as a cherry picked British exit, will be extinguished.
Brexiteers prophesied that Britain would be too valuable a trade asset for the EU to cast aside, it promised Britain could negotiate individual trade deals around the world more beneficial than those already negotiated by the EU, it promised it could close it’s borders and allow in only those it deemed worthy. It promised that all of this would happen almost overnight.
But ask yourself, why would any country negotiating a trade deal with the 500million strong EU suddenly push the UK of 60million to the top of the pile? The stance of the US has proved Britain has a mountain to climb with regard to trade deals. Already British Universities are being frozen out of joint European research projects, there is talk of financial transactions moving from London to Frankfurt and Paris.
The British government is already refusing to guarantee matching future EU funding promised to the UK, with pro-Brexit politicians already rolling back on some of their almost pie in the sky pre-referendum claims. The UK economy seems set for recession, the pound continues to plummet in value and the EU continues to deliver it’s intransigent message that access to the single market comes with free movement of services and workers.
If the British government sticks doggedly to its promise to curb migration, then a Norwegian style EFTA agreement is out of the question, in any case there is no guarantee the EFTA countries would allow Britain to join. The EU with or without Britain will hold fast to its sacrosanct founding pillars, the four freedoms.
For Britain a future of trade subject to tariff and restricted movement lies ahead. The 500 million strong EU will survive and evolve without its difficult island cousin, and as suspected, Britain will not be able to have its cake and eat it.